Published April 3, 2026 · 2024-25 & 2025-26 seasons · Close games only (≤15pt margin entering Q4)
We tracked every NBA player with at least 30 close-game appearances over the past two seasons, comparing their Q4 output to their Q1-Q3 per-quarter average. The results reveal a consistent and exploitable pattern: some players reliably elevate when the game is on the line. Others quietly disappear.
Methodology: "Close game" = margin of 15 points or fewer entering Q4. "Blowout finish" filter removes games decided by more than 20 points at final whistle — these games may have garbage time that distorts Q4 stats. Q1-Q3 baseline is per-quarter average (total ÷ 3), making it a true apples-to-apples comparison with Q4. Minimum 30 qualifying games required. Top and bottom 10 shown by selected metric.
Most consistent Q4 increase
+2.75
Anfernee Simons (POR) leads all players with a +2.75 points-per-quarter delta in close Q4s across 39 games — consistent across both seasons.
Biggest Q4 decrease
−3.11
Luka Doncic (LAL) averages 3.11 fewer points per quarter in close Q4s than his Q1-Q3 baseline — with minutes also dropping (9.96 → 7.95), suggesting the coaching staff has noticed.
Most misleading raw stats
−1.26
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's raw points drop but his per-minute output actually rises in Q4. He scores more efficiently — he just gets fewer minutes and fewer free throw attempts late.
Metric
Top 10 Q4 Increases / Bottom 10 Q4 Decreases
Click any bar to see game-by-game breakdown
Increases (+)Decreases (−)
Data: 2024-25 & 2025-26 NBA regular seasons + playoffs. Close games defined as ≤15pt margin entering Q4. Minimum 30 qualifying appearances. · Subscribe for picks