Research · Q3 Analysis
Q3 Performance Index
Published April 5, 2026 · 2022-23 through 2025-26 seasons · All teams · Q3 win rate by halftime status
Which teams dominate the third quarter? We tracked every team's Q3 win rate across four seasons, broken down by halftime status and home/away. The patterns are consistent enough to matter — especially when a team is trailing at the break.
Methodology: Q3 win = team scored more points in Q3 than opponent. Q3 win rate = Q3 wins ÷ total games (ties excluded from win/loss denominator). Default view combines home and away, all halftime statuses. Use checkboxes to expand rows. Season dropdown filters the sample. Minimum display: all teams regardless of sample size.
Most consistent Q3 comeback team
75.8%
OKC wins Q3 at home when trailing at halftime at a rate that has held above 68% across all four seasons — including 86.4% in 2022-23. This is a coaching signal, not noise.
Most consistent Q3 collapse
25.7%
Indiana away, leading at half: 11.8% in 22-23, 40.9% in 23-24, 23.8% in 24-25, 21.4% in 25-26. They consistently come out flat in Q3 after road halftime leads.
Worst single-season Q3 mark
14.3%
Washington home, trailing at half, 2024-25: won just 4 of 28 Q3s, -6.0 avg margin. One of the worst single-season Q3 splits in the dataset.
Ties (equal Q3 scores) excluded from win/loss calculation but included in games total. · Subscribe for picks
0%
100%
n = games · ties excluded from win%